SaaS Lifetime Value and Churn Calculator

A monthly churn that sounds low can leave your average customer with a lifespan of barely a year and a half. If your CAC takes nearly as long to pay back, margin per customer is razor-thin. Simulate it with your numbers.

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In 30 seconds: Get LTV adjusted for gross margin, acquisition payback, and LTV:CAC ratio with the formula in plain sight. You'll know which segment deserves investment and which is burning capital. Deterministic calculation with auditable formulas. The result is indicative — adjust the assumptions to reflect your real operation.

Methodology

Contribution per customer/month = ARPU × Gross margin

LTV = Monthly contribution ÷ Monthly churn

LTV:CAC = LTV ÷ CAC

Payback (months) = CAC ÷ Monthly contribution

Average lifespan (months) = 1 ÷ Monthly churn

Variables

ARPU
Average Revenue Per User per month.
Monthly Churn
Percentage of customers who cancel each month.
Gross Margin
Percentage of ARPU left after direct costs (hosting, support, third-party licenses).
CAC
Total cost of acquiring a new customer (marketing + sales divided by new customers).

Practical example

Imagine a B2B SaaS with $500/month ARPU, 4% monthly churn, 75% gross margin and $1,500 CAC.

Monthly contribution = $500 × 0.75 = $375.

LTV = $375 ÷ 0.04 = $9,375.

LTV:CAC = $9,375 ÷ $1,500 = 6.25 — the customer returns more than six times what it cost to acquire them.

Payback = $1,500 ÷ $375 = 4 months. The customer covers CAC before month five and contributes profit for the remaining ~25-month average lifespan.

Interpretation

LTV:CAC below 1 means you lose money on each customer: you're subsidizing growth. LTV:CAC between 1 and 3 is fragile; above 3 is healthy; above 5 may indicate you're under-investing in acquisition.

A short payback with high churn is still a problem: the customer may leave before paying back CAC. Always cross payback against lifespan.

Reducing churn by 1 point usually has more impact on LTV than increasing ARPU by 10%, because LTV depends on the inverse of churn.

Gross margin moves LTV proportionally: if your margin drops from 80% to 60%, your LTV falls 25% with nothing else changing.

Assumptions and limitations

  • Assumes constant monthly churn (exponential decay model).
  • Assumes stable ARPU and gross margin with no expansion revenue or upsells.
  • Does not discount time value of money (LTV is nominal, not present value).
  • Does not model variable service costs per cohort or senescence effects (older customers churn differently).

When to use this calculator

  • Before scaling paid acquisition: if LTV:CAC isn't above 3:1, scaling channels only amplifies losses.

  • When evaluating a new acquisition channel: compare its CAC and projected churn against the LTV of your existing cohorts.

  • To prepare for a fundraising round: investors expect to see LTV:CAC, payback and lifespan alongside MRR.

  • When considering a pricing change: raising ARPU moves LTV; lowering churn moves LTV much more.

  • To decide whether to invest in customer success: if reducing churn from 5% to 3% raises your LTV by 67%, the retention team's ROI is clear.

Common mistakes

  • Using gross ARPU instead of contribution (ARPU × margin). Without gross margin, your LTV is inflated and your LTV:CAC is fictional.

  • Ignoring implicit lifespan. A 12-month payback with 10% churn (10-month lifespan) means most customers leave before paying CAC.

  • Calculating CAC only with marketing spend, omitting SDR/AE salaries and sales tooling. Realistic CAC must include all go-to-market cost.

  • Taking churn from an atypical month as the baseline. Use at least a 3-month average to smooth seasonality.

Industry use cases

B2B SaaS

With ARPU $200, 3% churn and 80% margin, LTV is $5,333. If CAC is $1,200, the ratio lands at 4.4:1 — healthy. Reducing churn to 2% raises LTV to $8,000 and the ratio to 6.7:1.

B2C / consumer SaaS

With low ARPU ($15) and high churn (8%), LTV can be just $135 at 75% margin. For the model to work, CAC must be under $45 — only viable with organic or viral channels, not paid ads.

Content subscription

Streaming/education platforms with ARPU $25, 6% churn and 70% margin get an LTV of $292. Their key lever is reducing churn via engagement, not raising prices.

Subscription e-commerce

Monthly boxes with ARPU $40, 10% churn and 35% margin yield an LTV of $140. They need CAC under $45 — that's why they rely so heavily on referrals and reactivations.

Methodology and assumptions

How results are calculated, what we assume when modeling, and where the method loses precision.

Formula

LTV = (ARPU × Gross margin) ÷ Monthly churn · Average lifetime = 1 ÷ Churn

Assumptions

  • Constant monthly churn (does not decline with tenure).
  • Stable ARPU — upsells and downgrades are not modeled.
  • Gross margin reflects the variable cost to serve, not the operating margin.

Applicability limits

  • Real churn typically concentrates in the first 3 months; analyze by cohorts to validate.
  • When annual contracts allow early cancellation, the calculated LTV may be overstated.
  • Does not consider acquisition cost — use the LTV:CAC ratio to assess viability.

Sources

You have your LTV. Now project how your cash changes as you vary churn, ARPU and CAC month over month. Advanced Cash Flow Simulator

Want to go beyond the quick calculation?

The advanced simulators model complete scenarios — 12-month cash flow, pricing with sensitivity analysis, credit risk, delivery routes — with your own data and no sign-up.

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Calculator guide

What it calculates and who it is for

This calculator turns four metrics of your SaaS — ARPU, monthly churn, gross margin and CAC — into the figures that summarize the business's unit economics: LTV (customer lifetime value), the LTV:CAC ratio, CAC payback and average customer lifetime.

It is built for SaaS and subscription founders and operators who need to know whether the model works at the unit level: what a customer is really worth, whether the cost of acquiring one is justified, and which lever — price, churn or margin — moves the result most.

Inputs

Monthly ARPU
Average revenue per customer per month: total MRR over active customers. Use what is actually charged, not list price.
Monthly churn (%)
The percentage of customers canceling each month. Use at least a three-month average to smooth atypical months.
Gross margin (%)
What remains of ARPU after direct serving costs: infrastructure, support, embedded licenses.
CAC
Total cost of acquiring a customer: fully loaded sales and marketing spend divided by the period's new customers.
NRR (%) (optional)
Net Revenue Retention: if your customers expand revenue over time, enter it and the engine also computes an expansion-adjusted LTV.

Results you get

LTV
The total gross margin an average customer generates over their entire life as a subscriber: monthly contribution divided by churn.
LTV:CAC ratio
How many times the business recovers what it invests in acquisition: the viability verdict of the acquisition model.
CAC payback
Months for the customer's cumulative contribution to equal their acquisition cost.
Average customer lifetime
1 divided by monthly churn: the months the typical customer stays subscribed.
Monthly contribution
ARPU × gross margin: the real flow each customer contributes per month.

Methodology and assumptions

Monthly contribution = ARPU × Gross margin

LTV = Monthly contribution ÷ Monthly churn

LTV:CAC = LTV ÷ CAC

Payback (months) = CAC ÷ Monthly contribution

Average lifetime (months) = 1 ÷ Monthly churn

The model assumes exponential decay: each month the same percentage of remaining customers leaves. Under that assumption, average lifetime is the inverse of churn and LTV is the sum of expected contributions.

LTV is computed on margin-adjusted contribution — not gross revenue — and in nominal value, without time discounting.

Worked example

Hypothetical example for illustration. The numbers reproduce exactly when entered into the calculator on this page.

Worked example: a SaaS with $650 ARPU, 3.5% monthly churn, 72% gross margin and $5,200 CAC.

Monthly contribution: $650 × 0.72 = $468 per customer.

LTV: $468 ÷ 0.035 = $13,371.

LTV:CAC: $13,371 ÷ $5,200 = 2.6.

Payback: $5,200 ÷ $468 = 11.1 months. Average lifetime: 1 ÷ 0.035 = 28.6 months.

Reading: the customer pays back their acquisition in 11 months and stays 29 on average — viable, but with a thin margin: nearly 40% of the customer's life goes to paying their own CAC. Cutting churn to 2.5% would raise LTV to $18,720 and the ratio to 3.6 without touching price or costs.

How to interpret the result

An LTV:CAC ratio below 1 means each customer destroys value; between 1 and 3 the model is fragile, because the remaining margin must also cover the whole operation; above 3 acquisition sustains itself. An extremely high ratio isn't free either: it can mean you invest less than the market would let you capture.

Churn dominates the formula because it divides: going from 5% to 4% churn raises LTV by 25%, and from 4% to 3% by another 33%. Reducing churn almost always moves LTV more than an equivalent price increase.

Always cross payback against average lifetime: an 11-month payback with a 29-month lifetime leaves 18 months of net contribution; the same payback with 8% churn (a 12.5-month lifetime) barely lets the customer pay their CAC before leaving.

Limitations and when not to use it

  • Constant churn is a simplification: mature cohorts usually churn less than recent ones. To see the real curve per cohort, use the cohort retention calculator.
  • It assumes stable ARPU and margin: no expansion, upsell or plan downgrades. The optional NRR field partially corrects that limitation.
  • LTV is nominal: it does not discount the time value of money, which matters when comparing against alternative investments.
  • A frequent mistake is using gross ARPU without margin: it inflates LTV and produces spectacular but fictitious LTV:CAC ratios.
  • Do not use churn measured in a single atypical month (a price change, a migration): the result inherits all of that month's distortion.

From theory to calculation

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Frequently asked questions

1Customer churn or revenue churn?
This calculator uses customer (logo) churn. If your revenue concentrates in a few large accounts, complement with revenue churn and NRR, because losing a large customer weighs more than the count suggests.
2How do I measure monthly churn correctly?
Customers who canceled during the month divided by active customers at the start of the month, averaged over at least three months. Exclude free trials: only paying customers count.
3What does an 'infinite' LTV mean?
That you entered 0% churn: with no cancellations the model cannot bound customer lifetime. Use your real churn even if small; with a short history, use the worst observed month as a conservative estimate.
4Does LTV include my customers' expansion?
Only if you enter the optional NRR: then the engine also returns an expansion-adjusted LTV. Without it, LTV assumes each customer keeps their initial ARPU for life.
5How often should I recalculate?
Monthly for tracking, and whenever pricing, packaging or acquisition channels change: each moves ARPU, churn or CAC, and with them the whole unit economics.

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Last updated: July 19, 2026

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